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Commodity Strategist, Ole S Hansen, in a social media post on X said that Bloomberg Commodity Return Index is down 1% on the week despite the rise of energy prices as declines posted by metals offset the gains. However, the index is still up 23% on a year-to-date basis.

The expert added that gold is heading towards its biggest weekly loss in over six years owing to inflationary concerns and reducing expectations of rate cut. He added the decisive breakout below the $5,000 per troy ounce mark has aggravated the weakness for the yellow metal.

Although, speculation still remains that Middle Eastern economies affected by the conflict may sell bonds and gold to raise revenue, Hansen added.

https://twitter.com/Ole_S_Hansen/status/2034881993066823806?s=20

On MCX gold delivery contract for April is up nearly 1% trading at Rs 1,46,275 per 10 gram, while MCX Silver futures are flat on the exchange last quoted at Rs 2,31,903 per kg.

In international markets, spot gold is currently priced at $4,680 per troy ounce level, while spot silver is trading near the $71 per troy ounce mark.

On MCX Gold futures for April are up 1.18% from their previous close trading at Rs 1,46,669 per 10 grams. In international markets, spot gold is holding steady near the $4,682 per troy ounce level.

The slight rebounce for gold comes as the dollar index slipped from the highs of 100 mark and is currently trading near the 99 level. A soft dollar makes assets like gold less expensive for overseas currency holders, thereby increasing demand.

“From a levels perspective, gold has strong support near $4,500 on spot and around ₹1,40,000 on MCX, while resistance is seen at $4,850–$4,860, translating to roughly ₹1,50,000–₹1,54,000 on MCX,” Anindya Banerjee, Head of Commodity and Currency Research, Kotak Securities said.

He added that for silver, immediate support lies in the $60–$70 zone on spot, with MCX supports placed at ₹2,25,000, followed by ₹2,10,000 and ₹2,00,000. On the upside, resistance for silver is seen near $77.5–$78 on spot and around ₹2,50,000 on MCX. The broader takeaway remains clear—oil is driving the liquidity cycle, and metals are reacting to it.

Citing the technical support level for gold, Nicholas Frappell, global head of institutional markets at ABC Refinery told Reuters that “Gold held some important technical supports in ⁠the weekly time frame and gold may see a recovery to the level where it ​broke down, around $4,800.”

In international markets, spot gold is currently trading near the $4,673 per troy ounce levels. On MCX Gold delivery contract for April is up nearly 2% trading at Rs 1,47,700 per 10 grams.

“MCX Gold is trading above ₹1,47,000, stabilising after a mild gap-up opening. On the upside, ₹1,50,000–₹1,52,000 remains the immediate resistance zone. A breakout above ₹1,53,000 could accelerate momentum toward ₹1,56,000–₹1,58,000,” Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, said.

He added that  on the downside, immediate support lies in the ₹1,36,000–₹1,41,000 range. A breakdown could drag prices toward ₹1,30,000. For traders, buy-on-dips approach remains valid as long as key supports are intact.

MCX Gold delivery contract for April is up 1.89% trading at Rs 1,47,691 per 10 grams. While, MCX Silver delivery contract for is up 2.71% trading at Rs 2,37,721 per kg.

This follows a steady start for gold and silver which witnessed a collapse of over 10% in the prior trading session

“Silver stabilized above $73/oz but was still poised for a third consecutive weekly loss, as surging energy prices from the Middle East conflict fueled inflation concerns and reduced expectations for interest rate cuts.” said Jigar Trivedi, Senior Research Analyst at Indusind Securities

He added that rising energy costs and mounting inflationary pressures prompted investors to shift into the dollar and Treasuries, weighing on safe-haven metals.The shock to energy markets also forced traders to reassess the policy outlook after hawkish signals from major central banks.

Trived said that markets have now pushed back Fed easing expectations to 2027 and are pricing in two rate hikes each from the ECB and BOE this year, further dampening precious metals’ appeal.” MCX Silver May futures is likely to rebound to Rs. 234,000/kg as it may rebound after yesterday’s 7% fall,” the analyst said.

“Gold remained below $4,700/oz following a steep two-day sell off and was on track for its worst weekly performance in six years, as surging energy prices driven by the Middle East conflict stoked inflation concerns and dampened expectations for interest rate cuts,” Jigar Trivedi, Senior Research Analyst at Indusind Securities said.

He added that higher energy prices and intensifying inflationary pressures prompted investors to rotate into the dollar and treasuries at the expense of safe-haven metals. The energy-driven shock forced traders to reassess the policy outlook after a wave of hawkish signals from major central banks.

Trivedi remarked that the Fed kept rates unchanged, signaling no rate cuts until inflation clearly eases.At the same time, the ECB, BOJ, and BOE also left rates steady but struck more hawkish tones, indicating a bias toward tighter policy.

“Markets have now pushed back expectations for Fed rate cuts to 2027 and are pricing in two rate hikes each from the ECB and BOE this year, further weighing on gold’s appeal.MCX Gold April futures is likely to bounce to Rs 146,500/10g amid rebound in the world markets,” said Trivedi.

Spot silver prices have steadied near the $73 per troy ounce levels as central banks globally signal towards a hawkish stance. The US Federal Reserve held rates steady, while the European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of England (BOE) and, Bank of Japan (BOJ) also maintained rates but adopted hawkish tones.

Markets are currently pricing in rate hikes by ECB and BOE for 2026, reducing the appeal for non-interest yielding silver.

The USD impact on gold aka the dollar impacts gold as both usually have an inverse relationship. A strong dollar makes precious metals like gold and silver more expensive for other currency holders, thereby denting demand.

The dollar index has been trading near its monthly record high levels in the recent sessions owing to inflationary concerns caused by the polonged West Asia conflict.

“An environment characterised by elevated geopolitical tensions, shifting market correlations, and persistent currency risks underscores the importance of building resilient portfolios. Gold’s performance across market cycles, its diversification attributes and its ability to provide protection during periods of financial stress reinforce its strategic, long-term relevance within portfolios. For Indian investors in particular, gold offers an additional layer of resilience by amplifying returns during periods of rupee depreciation,” World Gold Council said in its report.

CEO, Capitalmind Mutual Fund, Deepak Senoy in a social media post on X remarked that the downfall for gold and silver following the Middle Eastern conflict is very interesting. He added. that gold is probably stuck in UAE which is the largest importer and exporter of the yellow metal.

https://twitter.com/deepakshenoy/status/2034689599747104989?s=20

Rising concerns over soaring oil prices weighed in for the downside of precious metals like gold and silver. On Thursday, brent crude climbed towards an intra-day high of $119 per barrel mark, while the US benchmark for oil, West Texas Intermediate surged towards the $99 per barrel mark in the same session.

Rising fears over inflation and high interest rates makes investors shift towards interest bearing assets like bonds.

Commodity Strategist, Ole S Hansen, in a social media post on X explained that the slump for gold came in as a decisive breakout below the $5,000/oz mark triggered reduction of leveraged positions. Shifting expectations of rate cut by Fed and a strong dollar amplified the yellow metal’s slump.

He also cites that the secondary reason may be that over the prolonged Middle Eastern conflict, the economies of the countries hit by the same may sell bonds and gold to raise revenue.

https://twitter.com/Ole_S_Hansen/status/2034665115107148062?s=20

On MCX, the April delivery contract of gold closed flat at Rs 1,45,119 per 10 gram, while the May delivery contract of silver was last quoted at Rs 2,31,589 per kg, down more than 6% from its previous close.

In international spot gold is trading near the $4,671 per troy ounce levels, markets, while spot silver is currently trading near the $73 per troy ounce mark.

The US Federal Reserve also kept rates unchanged at its March meeting, maintaining them in the range of 3.50% to 3.75%. With nearly all major developed central banks keeping rates unchanged this week, investor sentiment on gold and silver weighed heavily.

On Thursday, spot gold fell to an intra-day low of $4,503 per troy ounce, while spot silver plummeted near the $65 per troy ounce level, marking a fall of over 10% for both assets.

“Gold is now a very widely held position for institutional investors ⁠and that has been on the back of the debasement trade over the last year. ​But the foundations of that trade are now weakening,” Reuters quoted Daniel Ghali, commodity strategist at ​TD Securities as saying.

The experts added that over the near term, gold will continue to see risk to the downside. “There is a very substantial amount of room for gold to sell off while maintaining its bull market era trend support,” said Ghali.

Gold is under pressure because the US Federal Reserve has kept interest rates unchanged. At the March meeting, Chair Powell also warned that inflation could rise again. This means rates may stay high for longer, which is not good for gold. The Fed said the economy is growing steadily, but job growth is slow and inflation is still a bit high.

Gold is facing pressure from a stronger US Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against a basket of major currencies. As the ongoing conflict drags on, elevated oil prices are likely to persist, lending further support to the dollar. The dollar index moved back above the 100 mark on Thursday amid growing concerns over stubborn inflation. Meanwhile, oil prices have risen after Iran reported attacks on some of its energy facilities, adding to global inflationary fears.

Manav Modi, Commodities Analyst, Motilal Oswal said, “Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, bullion remained under pressure as markets focused on the likelihood of higher-for-longer interest rates amid persistent inflation risks. U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran showed no signs of easing, following reports of an Israeli strike that killed senior Iranian official Ali Larijani and a subsequent attack on the world’s largest natural gas field shared by Iran and Qatar, keeping oil prices elevated above $100 per barrel. Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil transit route, have pushed crude prices near four-year highs, intensifying concerns over energy-driven inflation.”

The Federal Reserve’s updated projections indicated a higher outlook for core PCE inflation this year, with Chair Jerome Powell acknowledging that rising oil prices will contribute to inflationary pressures while emphasizing that the economic implications of the conflict remain uncertain, he added.

Another key commodity market commentator, Karel Mercx pointed out that $70/bbl is a key support levels, “Silver has built strong support at $70 in recent months. There was one washout to $63, but it still closed back above $70. Even after the brutal sell-off in recent days, a few million more ounces left COMEX yesterday. $70 has to hold. If ETFs dump hard, we have a problem.

https://twitter.com/KarelMercx/status/2034599101841428955?s=20

Jateen Trivedi of LKP Securities has said that gold has come under sharp pressure, falling over $100 in a session and nearly $300 in two days, amid a stronger dollar, rising bond yields, and the US Fed’s “higher-for-longer” rate stance. Inflation concerns driven by rising crude prices and Iran-related tensions are limiting safe-haven appeal. Gold has slipped to near one-month lows around $4,700. On MCX, resistance is seen near Rs 1,50,000, while support lies in the Rs 1,44,000–1,42,000 zone, with the short-term trend weak and volatile.

Noted Economist, Peter Schiff pointed out the striking trends across gold, silver and dollar rates, ” What’s interesting is despite gold and silver selling off sharply, the U.S. dollar is also falling against other foreign currencies. So if forex traders realize that cancelling rate cuts is not bullish for the dollar, why do precious metals traders think it’s bearish for gold?”

https://twitter.com/PeterSchiff/status/2034637873811464582?s=20

Kedia Advisory described the fall in the prices of precious metalks as a “blood bath”. It added that the drop in MCX gold futures as ignited by Fed’s hawkish tone and surging treasury yields.

Additionally, a surge in dollar index weighed in, and added to the downside for gold and silver.

“If current momentum persists, the next technical floor is expected near ₹1,40,000 (MCX Gold futures), as physiological support as market brace for continued pressure from escalating West Asia tensions and surging energy costs, ” Kedia Advisory said.

“Our technical analysis points to a bearish bias in gold prices. Close below USD 5000 / oz on daily basis to confirm the breakout for a move to USD 4600/4400 / oz, while this will be invalidated above USD 5150 / oz,” Yes Bank said in a report.

In international markets, spot gold which opened near the $4,800 slipped to intra-day lows near the $5,400/oz marks. On MCX, the April delivery contract of gold is down by more than 5%, trading at the Rs 1,44,557 per 10 gram mark.

Will crude oil price follow the Silver route? Sunil Singhania, Founder of Abakkus Asset Manager, tweeted that Silver surged rapidly to trade around $120, but within 2 months dropped to $70. Crude prices also tracked $120 during the same timeframe, but will it fall to $70, he asked.

https://twitter.com/SunilBSinghania/status/2034615068617498891?s=20

American Stockbroker, Peter Schiff in a social media post on X remarked that the sell-off for precious metals comes as rate cut expectations have been wiped off the market. However, he added that inflation would go away as the US Federal Reserve held rates steady.

https://twitter.com/PeterSchiff/status/2034555077600412024?s=20

The dollar index spiked to the 100 mark in today’s trade adding to the downside for precious metals like gold and silver. A strong dollar makes precious metals more expensive for other currency holders, thereby denting demand.

The rise in the dollar index comes as the West Asia conflict continues to see no signs of de-escalations. Hawkish stance of Fed with no signs of monetary policy easing, and inflationary shocks over the soaring oil and energy prices have pushed the dollar index to monthly high levels.

In late January 2026, silver prices surged to unprecedented heights, nearing the $120 per ounce. Ajay Kedia, Founder of Kedia Commodity Advisors, remarked that the increase in price was primarily fueled by strong investment demand, a weak US Dollar, and heightened expectations for interest rate reductions by the US Federal Reserve.