It’s Akshay Tritiya 2026, and the volatile swing in gold prices continue to be in focus. After 4 years of explosive double-digit gains, is the yellow metal poised for the 5th consecutive breakout year? Perhaps if one had asked this question at the beginning of the year, it would have been a no-brainer as gold spiked to new all-time highs in later January. However, since then it’s been a volatile ride.
Axis Direct, an Indian brokerage house, however, has a positive view on prices going forward. They see scope for 10-15% upside for gold prices from the current baseline.
The gold stress test 2026: Axis Direct price outlook
If one tracks the gold price trajectory, from the highs of $5,500/oz in late January, prices slipped to the lows of $4,098 in March. The ceasefire talks in April have further eased apprehension significantly. As the brokerage house Axis Direct highlighted, a “formidable bottom” has been formed. A 10-year price analysis by Axis Direct reveals that gold has delivered 18% returns annually on a compounded basis between 2016-2026.
According to the brokerage house, the “2026 macro environment offers a win-win outcome.” They stated that “whether the global economy faces stagflationary heat or rate cut relief, the macro-economic architecture provides a structural tailwind for gold.”
Axis Direct gold price outlook on Akshay Tritiya 2026 and beyond
In the light of the above factors, the Axis Direct report highlighted that “following the extreme stress of Q1 2026, the underlying pillars of demand- central bank accumulation, ETF inflows and macro-economic hedging – remain fully intact. Gold remains a fundamental portfolio necessity.”
What’s driving gold demand now?
The key question now is what’s driving gold demand now. Axis Direct outlines the four pillars of demand. According to their analysis, the “macro-driver quadrant” involves four key catalysts –
-Central Bank buying: Sustained baseline demand despite record-high prices
–Fed Rate: The inverse relationship between gold rate and the Fed rate action is an important factor.
-ETF inflows: Indian ETF inflows surged to Rs 25,000-30,000 crore in 2025 from a mere Rs 1,500 crore in 2022.
-Geopolitical tension: The ongoing geopolitical tension is also adding to gold’s safe haven demand.
Gold outlook: Axis Direct year-end target
On the basis of the above analysis, Axis Direct has set targets for both global and domestic gold prices.
For Comex gold, Axis Direct expects prices to surge to $5,300 – 5,500/oz levels. The gold target for the domestic market has been set at Rs 1,70,000- 1,85,000/10 gm. From the current levels of Rs 1,52,000/10 gm on MCX and $4,800/oz levels in the international market, that signals significant upside potential.
Axis Direct anticipates about 10-15% upside from the current baseline.
