Adani Ports and SEZ (ADSEZ) reported a strong set of quarterly earnings for 4QFY26, beating both Nomura and Bloomberg consensus estimates on revenue and EBITDA. The results, coupled with a robust long-term capacity expansion plan, have prompted Nomura to raise its target price on the stock.
Nomura on Adani Ports
The global brokerage house Nomura raised its target price on Adani Ports and SEZ to Rs 1,930 from Rs 1,850 earlier, implying an upside of about 16.5% from the closing price of Rs 1,657 as of April 30, 2026. The brokerage maintained its ‘Buy’ rating on the stock.
The brokerage firm further stated that the firm has increased its profit forecast for FY28 by 6%, though it trimmed its near-term estimate for 2027 by 4%. Nomura expects ADSEZ to deliver robust profit growth of approximately 19% annually through 2028. The brokerage’s analysts believe this growth trajectory supports a higher valuation for the stock.
Currently, ADSEZ shares are trading at 13 times their projected 2028 earnings. However, Nomura has set a target valuation of 15 times earnings, suggesting the stock is undervalued by about 15%. This target price falls comfortably within the company’s historical trading range of 13 to 17 times earnings.
Adani Port Management guidance for FY27
According to the report, management has guided for revenue of Rs 43,000–45,000 crore for FY27, implying growth of 11-16% year-on-year, and EBITDA of Rs 25,000–26,000 crore, implying growth of 9-14% year-on-year. Nomura noted that management has shared conservative guidance, given the uncertainties stemming from the ongoing West Asia crisis.
Capacity expansion plans
ADSEZ has set an ambitious target of expanding its domestic port capacity to 1,000 million tonnes by CY30, from 653 million tonnes in FY26, which is a 1.5x increase. Of this addition, 91 million tonnes will come from technology upgrades, while Mundra (94MT), Vizhinjam (62MT), and Dhamra (49MT) will account for the bulk of physical capacity additions.
On the traffic side, ADSEZ aims to achieve 850 million tonnes in domestic port traffic by CY30, implying a 14% CAGR from 451 million tonnes in FY26. Additionally, the company targets 150 million tonnes in international port traffic by CY30, taking its overall traffic to 1,000 million tonnes at a 16% CAGR from 501 million tonnes in FY26.
Five-year capex plan
According to the report, the company has guided for a capex of up to Rs 1,00,000 crore over FY27-31, of which approximately Rs 70,000 crore will be directed toward port capacity expansion. Domestic ports will absorb the largest share at Rs 60,000–63,000 crore, followed by marine fleet expansion at Rs 11,000-13,000 crore, logistics infrastructure, including rakes, MMLPs, and warehouses at Rs 7,000-9,000 crore, international ports largely for CWIT Phase 2 at Rs 6,000-7,000 crore, and technology and decarbonisation initiatives at Rs 6,000-8,000 crore.
Nomura noted that with a 27% share in India’s port traffic and a cargo handling capacity of 653 million tonnes, ADSEZ remains India’s largest private port operator, backed by industry-leading operating efficiency and an integrated logistics offering.
Adani Ports and SEZ Q4FY26 results
Adani Ports and SEZ reported revenue of Rs 107.4 billion in 4QFY26, up 26% year-on-year, coming in 11% ahead of both Nomura and Bloomberg consensus estimates. Cargo traffic grew 13% year-on-year, aided by the NQXT acquisition and higher container transhipment traffic. Among segments, ports, logistics, and marine revenues grew 15%, 10%, and 101% year-on-year, respectively, as per the report.
EBITDA for the quarter came in at Rs 60.2 billion, up 20% year-on-year, beating Nomura’s estimate by 6% and Bloomberg consensus by 8%. EBITDA margins, however, contracted 291 basis points year-on-year to 56.1%.
For the full year FY26, ADSEZ reported revenue of Rs 387 billion, EBITDA of Rs 22,900 crore, and capex of Rs 15,300 crore, all exceeding management’s own guidance of Rs 38,000 crore, Rs 22,800 crore, and Rs 12,000 crore, respectively. Cash from operations stood at Rs 20,400 crore.
Adani Ports and SEZ share price
Adani Ports and SEZ’s stock rallied 4.8% during intraday trading on May 4, 2026. The stock has gained 25.44% during the past month, and it has been up 37.13% during the past year.
