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Adani Ports: Why Motilal Oswal sees 39% upside despite ongoing geopolitical tension – Market News

Adani Ports: Why Motilal Oswal sees 39% upside despite ongoing geopolitical tension – Market News

Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone (APSEZ) is in focus on Dalal Street after its share price jumped nearly 7% in the intraday trading session.

The domestic brokerage Motilal Oswal, has outlined a bullish outlook on the stock. The brokerage has set a target price of Rs 1,820. This indicates a potential upside of around 39% from current levels.

But what is driving this optimism? Let’s take a look at the multiple factors ranging from business expansion to improving financial visibility, where the brokerage sees bullish trend.

Motilal Oswal on Adani Ports: Growth visibility improves

One of the key reasons highlighted in the report is improving earnings visibility.

Motilal Oswal report noted, “With improving earnings visibility and limited downside risk from ongoing geopolitical tension, Adani Ports is well-positioned to sustain growth, aided by diversified port volumes, the acquisition of NQXT, and the expansion of integrated end-to-end logistics offerings.”

Motilal Oswal on Adani Ports: Strong network and market position

Adani Ports continues to hold a dominant position in India’s port sector. It operates the country’s largest private port network. This logistic player has 15 ports and terminals spread across the west, south and east coasts.

In addition, it has an international presence with ports in Israel, Sri Lanka, Tanzania and Australia.

The company’s domestic market share stood at 26.4% as of December 2025.

As per the brokerage report, “Management highlighted that its domestic port volume growth over the past decade has been nearly three times the industry growth rate.”

Motilal Oswal on Adani Ports: Logistics integration driving higher value

Another major driver is the company’s push towards becoming a full logistics player, rather than just a port operator.

This includes expanding into areas like container train operations, warehousing, inland container depots and last-mile delivery.

As per the Motilal Oswal report, “This strategy is driving higher customer wallet share and enhancing cargo stickiness, while its scalable and diversified model underpins long-term growth.”

Motilal Oswal on Adani Ports: Expansion plans and long-term targets

Looking ahead, Adani Ports has laid out clear growth targets. The company aims to handle 850 million metric tonnes of domestic cargo and 150 million metric tonnes of international cargo by 2030.

The brokerage note added, “Looking forward, management retains its target of 850mmt of domestic and 150mmt of international cargo volumes by 2030, with deeper integration into dedicated freight corridor-linked hinterland corridors and industrial clusters driving long-term growth.”

Motilal Oswal on Adani Ports: Improving financials and capital efficiency

Financial strength is another factor supporting the positive view. The company has strong cash flows and a comfortable balance sheet, with a net debt-to-earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) ratio of 1.9 times.

As per the brokerage report, “With strong cash flows, a healthy cash balance of Rs 11,800 crore, and a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 1.9x, Adani Ports is well-positioned for further expansion.”

At the same time, its marine business is also showing improvement. “Management is aiming to double its revenue from Rs 1,140 crore in FY25 (Rs 1,960 crore achieved in 9MFY26), positioning the segment as a profitable and capital-efficient business,” the report noted.

What to watch ahead

The brokerage expects steady growth in the coming years. This is driven by rising cargo volumes and ongoing infrastructure investments. It estimates cargo volume growth of around 11% over FY25 to FY28, which could translate into strong growth in revenue and profits.

Disclaimer: This article provides factual analysis only and is not, and should not be construed as, an offer, solicitation, or recommendation to buy or sell securities. Investors must conduct their own independent due diligence and seek advice from a SEBI-registered financial advisor.

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