The auspicious occasion of Akshay Tritya is just around the corner. Falling on April 19, historically this Indian festival has been associated with gold buying. However this year, it comes at a time when bullion markets are in the midst of sharp price swings, making the outlook more complex for buyers and investors
Typically seen as a safe-haven asset, the yellow metal has faced heightened volatility so far this year Soaring oil prices, global headwinds and the sharp rise in prices of commodities like fertilisers have made buyers cautious.
As gold navigates the current zig-zag pattern, experts weigh in their views and portfolio recommendations for precious metals ahead of Akshay Tritya
Muted buying likely despite festive demand
Market veteran, Vijay Bhambwani believes that buying sentiment for the current financial year may remain subdued.
“ This year may see relatively muted buying due to a combination of high prices, stock markets being sluggish and flight to cash seen since the Iran war started. Central bank selling is keeping prices in check too,” he added.
He highlighted that gold demand may gradually pick up heading into May, which marks the peak of the marriage season.
On silver which is typically 30 to 35% more volatile than gold, Bhambwani noted that the white metal may undergo a period of price consolidation before a new rally begins.
“The kind of selling it saw between Dec – Mar means there will be some consolidation in prices before a rally begins. Whenever it does start,price moves will be sharp- as is the routinely case with silver,” he explained .
Near-term outlook two-sided
In the current geopolitical backdrop the near- term outlook for gold remains double-sided, said Kayant Chainwala, Assistant Vice-president of Commodity Research at Kotak Securities.
The analyst in a separate note said that gold has historically delivered around 30% returns from one Akshay Tritya cycle to the other. “Although price movements on the day itself are typically modest, the occasion has consistently marked an auspicious entry point for long-term investors,” she added.
Strategy: staggered buying, selective silver exposure
For this Akshay Tritya she expects the demand to remain firm in value terms, adding that jewellery demand may continue to remain subdued.
“The current period of volatility should be viewed as an opportunity to build positions gradually rather than a signal to exit,” the analyst adds.
The Kotak Securities analyst recommended a portfolio allocation of 8-15% for gold. Meanwhile, she added that investors can also consider silver as a strategic addition.
“A balanced approach remains key. Gold should continue as the core holding (75–80% of the precious metals basket), while silver can form a 20–25% tactical allocation, accumulated selectively and held with a 2+ year horizon,” Chainwala explained.
Gold retains its long-term appeal
Despite the near-term volatility, gold continues to hold its appeal, having delivered a 10% return so far in 2026, while silver has marked a gain of 5% in the same period,as per a Motilal Oswal report.
The brokerage expects gold to consolidate in the near term maintaining a buy on dips stance over the yellow metal.
“ Gold could consolidate in a broad range, however we continue to maintain a buy on dips stance for medium to longer term perspective with the target of $6000 i.e. Rs 1,85,000 on domestic front,” the Motilal Oswal report stated.
According to Navneet Damani, Head of Research – Commodities at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, gold continues to serve as a reliable store of value for Indian terms, especially during periods of volatility.
“Gold is currently navigating a complex global environment. While there are phases of pressure due to interest rate expectations and currency strength, the broader outlook remains supported by uncertainty, inflation concerns, and long-term investment demand,” he added.
Shift in investor behaviour gains pace
While physical buying during special occasions remains important, Manav Modi, Commodities Analyst at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, says that investor demand in gold participation is witnessing a gradual change.
“ There is a clear rise in interest towards more flexible and transparent investment options. This trend is expected to strengthen as investors look for both convenience and liquidity,” Modi highlighted.
