Gold jewellery stocks are in focus given the regulatory curbs in the wake of the falling rupee. Otherwise, also, 2026 has been a rather volatile year for the precious metal thus far. In this context how is the gold demand expected to pan out and what’s the call on some of the biggest market players? Motilal Oswal Financial Services reiterated its ‘Buy’ rating on Titan Company.
The domestic brokerage house expects this Tata Group company to manage the ongoing situation well by continuing to find new gold sourcing avenues (temple jewellery, exchange, etc) and believes that superior balance sheet can help in regulator tightening. Motilal Oswal has a target price of Rs 5,150, implying an upside of over 26% from the current market price.
However, they have reduced EPS estimates for Titan by 2% for FY27 and 1% for FY28 due to a rise in the customs duty.
Impact of customs duty hike
A significant regulatory challenge following the Indian government’s decision to increase customs duty on gold and silver from 6% to 15%. While this may hurt demand in the short term, Motilal Oswal observes that Titan has historically managed such situations well, often benefiting from inventory gains and seeing its stock outperform the Nifty-50 within a year of such announcements.
Structural growth and market formalisation
Titan is positioned to benefit from the ongoing shift from unorganised to organised jewellery players. Despite being a market leader, Titan holds only an 8% share in a market where organised players still make up less than 40%, providing substantial “headroom” for long-term growth and market share gains.
Strategic international expansion through Damas
Titan is strengthening its international presence, particularly in the GCC, through the acquisition of a 67% stake in Damas Jewellery in July 2025. This move allows for a dual-brand strategy where Tanishq caters to the South Asian diaspora while Damas targets the local Arab population.
Robust performance of CaratLane
Motilal Oswal said that CaratLane was a highly successful acquisition, delivering a 40% revenue CAGR between FY19 and FY26. The business has transitioned from losses to profitability, achieving double-digit EBIT margins (10%) by FY26.
Resilience during flat gold cycles
Historical analysis shows that Titan thrives even when gold prices remain flat. During previous flat cycles (FY17-19 and FY21-23), Titan clocked revenue CAGRs of 25% and 35% respectively, as stable prices encouraged consumers to regain momentum in purchasing high-carat products.
With better long-term growth prospects, historically, stock performance post one-year of regulatory announcement has mostly been positive (outperforming the Nifty 50 as well), said Motilal Oswal.
Titan’s share price performance
The share price of Titan has fallen 0.22% in the last five trading days. The stock has declined almost 10% in the past one month. However, it has given a return of nearly 5% in the past six months. Titan’s stock price has risen 14% over the course of the last 12 months.
Titan Q4FY26
Titan Company reported a consolidated net profit rising 35% year-on-year to around Rs 1,179 crore. Its total income rose 46% YoY to around Rs 20,300 crore in one of the strongest quarterly performances in the company’s history.
The jewellery portfolio grew 50% YoY to around Rs 18,195 crore during the quarter, excluding bullion and digi-gold sales, despite elevated gold prices.
Also, the company’s board of the Tata Group company also recommended a dividend of Rs 15 per equity share of face value Re 1 each for FY26.
