Antique reiterated its positive stance on Astral and select alcoholic beverage companies while maintaining a cautious view on Persistent Systems following its acquisition of Germany-based Nagarro. The brokerage believes Astral’s proposed restructuring could unlock shareholder value, while policy changes in Tamil Nadu could create fresh opportunities for leading liquor companies.
Antique on Astral: ‘Buy’
Antique maintained a ‘Buy’ rating on Astral Ltd. with a target price of Rs 1,630, implying an upside of about 9.7%.
The brokerage said Astral’s proposed demerger of its chemicals business into a separately listed Astral Chemie, along with the merger of Al-Aziz Plastics into its plumbing business, will create two focused businesses with independent management, capital allocation and growth strategies.
Under the scheme, shareholders will receive one share of Astral Chemie for every Astral share held.
The demerged chemicals business generated revenue of Rs 1,860 crore and EBITDA of Rs 190 crore in FY26, while Al-Aziz Plastics reported revenue of Rs 37.3 crore.
“We believe the proposed restructuring should lead to sharper business focus and has the potential to unlock shareholder value over the medium to long term,” Antique said.
The brokerage expects the restructuring to improve operational efficiency, enhance manufacturing synergies and provide greater strategic flexibility across the plumbing and chemicals businesses.
Antique on Radico Khaitan: ‘Buy’
Antique reiterated its ‘Buy’ rating on Radico Khaitan Ltd. and raised its target price to Rs 4,500 from Rs 3,928, implying an upside of about 17%.
The brokerage expects recent developments in Tamil Nadu’s liquor market to benefit national brands. It highlighted reforms in TASMAC’s supply chain, refurbishment of retail outlets and the possible launch of new brands over the next six months.
Tamil Nadu accounts for around 64.7 million IMFL cases, nearly 16% of India’s IMFL volumes, and contributes more than 50% of the country’s brandy market.
Antique said Radico Khaitan is well placed to benefit because of its strong presence in the brandy category. It raised its earnings estimates by 4-5% and increased its valuation multiple to 55x FY28 earnings, resulting in the higher target price.
Antique on United Spirits: ‘Buy’
Antique reiterated its ‘Buy’ rating on United Spirits Ltd. with a target price of Rs 1,791, implying an upside of about 17%.
The brokerage said United Spirits’ established presence in Tamil Nadu positions it well to capture market share if the state’s ongoing distribution reforms improve access for national brands.
It expects the company’s existing distribution network and premium portfolio to benefit from a more efficient retail ecosystem in one of India’s largest IMFL markets.
Antique on Allied Blenders & Distillers: ‘Buy’
Antique maintained its ‘Buy’ rating on Allied Blenders & Distillers with a target price of Rs 788, implying an upside of about 16%.
The brokerage said gradual changes in Tamil Nadu’s liquor distribution system could improve opportunities for branded liquor companies as market access expands and premium products gain wider availability.
It expects Allied Blenders to benefit alongside other national players as reforms improve the operating environment in the state.
Antique on Persistent Systems: ‘Hold’
Antique retained a ‘Hold’ rating on Persistent Systems Ltd. with a target price of Rs 5,400, implying an upside of about 11.6%.
The brokerage said the acquisition of Nagarro and a new long-term contract worth more than $650 million strengthen Persistent’s long-term growth prospects by expanding its presence in Europe and increasing its annualised revenue run rate to about $2.9 billion.
However, it cautioned that execution remains critical.
“On paper, we believe the strategic logic behind the acquisition in terms of geography, scale and multiple arbitrage, is sound. However, the execution risk is significant and the premium is hard to justify unless Persistent has high conviction in margin improvement and demand recovery,” Antique said.
It added that the acquisition would become meaningfully value accretive only if Nagarro’s EBIT margin improves to 12-13% over the next three years.
Conclusion
Antique’s latest stock calls favour companies with identifiable earnings catalysts and improving business fundamentals. The brokerage sees value-unlocking potential in Astral’s restructuring, expects Radico Khaitan, United Spirits and Allied Blenders to benefit from evolving liquor distribution reforms in Tamil Nadu, and remains constructive on their long-term growth prospects.
At the same time, it continues to take a measured approach on Persistent Systems, saying the strategic rationale for the Nagarro acquisition is compelling but successful execution will determine whether the deal delivers the expected returns.
Disclaimer: The stock ratings, target prices, and investment rationales mentioned in this article are those of the third-party brokerage firm and do not reflect the views of this publication. This content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer, solicitation, or direct investment advice. Readers should not make financial decisions based solely on this information and are strongly advised to consult a SEBI-registered investment advisor before making any investment choices.
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